Will evidence of life be discovered on Mars before 2040?

Ṁ1349

2041

26%

chance

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With Perserverence currently on mars looking for microbial life and creating samples for the Mars Sample Return mission that is currently expected to arrive on earth in 2033, will we detect evidence of life on Mars before 2040?

Will resolve YES if a 5 sigma discovery of martian life is announced before December 31st 2040.

https://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/

https://mars.nasa.gov/msr/#Facts

Mars Sample Return - NASA

NASA and ESA are working to plan ways to bring the first samples of Mars rocks and soil back to Earth for detailed study.

Science Space exploration Aliens Mars Robotics

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evidence of past martian life still counts.

The probability of us discovering life on Mars P(discover life)=P(discover|there is life)P(life on Mars) [false positives are as probable as 5-sigma, so let's ignore them], so this market being at 34% means there is at least 34% chance of life on Mars in the first place. Can anyone (maybe those who bet YES) explain why is having microbes on Mars so probable?

I thought this is about evidence of (past) life on mars, perhaps I misunderstood. @RyanGuill can you clarify?

Even if it is, my question remains

bought Ṁ50 YES

Some suggestive evidence but might take a while to get conclusive ones

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/25/science/nasa-perseverance-rover-mars-rock.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

What if we put it there (either by accident or intentionally)?

predicts NO

@jskf Only if we believe this is Martian life will this resolve YES

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9944251/

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