gpt-5.2-pro gives me 18% on this one: https://imgur.com/a/klc9XRP

@Dulaman Interesting. I think the likelihood is higher due to the fact that he will probably reach trillionaire status by that point. When he donated to Trump last year, his net worth was ~$220bn. If he were to donate the same proportion of his net worth in 2028 as he did in 2024, it would be more than a billion dollars. Even if his net worth remained unchanged from today, it'd be more than $600 million.

There's also the recent reports that he plans on backing republicans for midterms which suggests his prior claim of wanting to do a lot less political spending might not be exactly true. (https://www.axios.com/2025/12/16/elon-musk-donations-midterms-republicans-trump)

@Ryanjsw4 I suspect if he's just thinking in terms of raw money then the political damage that was done to companies like Tesla make it not worthwhile to bankroll politicians in the near future

If he starts hitting the psychedelics again then maybe there's an upside where the narrative takes hold in his mind that he's fighting a solo battle against a great evil global force or something.

Then maybe he'll do a redux in 2028 for Vance.

@Dulaman I don't think it was the donations that ultimately sullied the reputation of Tesla, I think it was DOGE and being center stage. At this point, there's not really any going back. He's identified with the GOP either way, and the DNC is only going to increase wealth redistributive rhetoric using him, the world's richest man, as the villain. In terms of Tesla sales in Europe, he's all in on Robotaxis at this point. I don't think he envisions Tesla vehicle sales being an important part of the business going beyond 2028.

@Ryanjsw4 nah donations to Trump and nazi salute during his inauguration nuked Tesla globally, especially in Europe. Basically ceded market to Chinese EV and lost hundreds of billions of dollars worth of sales over the following 10 years. After that happened then the narrative changed and it was "oh that was the plan all along and EVs don't matter" etc

@Ryanjsw4 political damage for Tesla is now a long-term dynamic. Going to be hard to sell humanoid robots in Europe when the CEO is trying to attack the democratic process. At that point even Chinese machines look less of a risk. But that's for the next decade, not this one.

@Ryanjsw4 In the US he's probably in a pretty good position whoever wins in 2028. Unless he does something really stupid with xAI+twitter. But in practice it takes a lot for the federal state to start going after the wealthy. He's going to survive marginal increases to income/corporate tax 🤣

@Dulaman Yea, I did forget about the salute. It's not going to be hard to sell humanoid robots for the foreseeable future, though. Anyone who can make them will be able to sell them. The demand for humanoids is that large. You also have to account for the rising far right in Europe with the AfD and Reform. Modelling Europe's political environment as a static extrapolation of the present might not make that much sense given the recent polls. I do agree that he is unlikely to be severely attacked even if dems get the presidency, house, and senate, but I'm not sure that changes the calculation all that much for him. He will perceive the championing of regulations and anti-growth rhetoric as a personal affront, even if it doesn't ultimately threaten his entire net worth.