Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2027? | Manifold

Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2027?

Mini

13

Ṁ1079

2028

1D

1W

1M

ALL

39%

Better

37%

The same

24%

Worse

I'll be referencing this

https://manifold.markets/calibration

Starting Brier score: 0.16781

To resolve as "better" or "worse" it should vary by more than 0.01

Manifold Meta-Forecasting Predictions on Predictions

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

Sort by:

reposted

Futarchists, hold NO on Worse if you believe Manifold will continue to grow its user base.

Related questions

Will Manifold bring back calibration before LLMs are smart enough to provide a better calibration graph?

Will Manifold have automated resolutions before 2027?

Will my Manifold prediction streak remain unbroken through 2025?

Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?

Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2040?

At the end of 2025, will Manifold think things have changed for the worse for us as a society?

Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2025?

Will Manifold be more accurate than the Veritasium crowd-sourced estimate?

Will Manifold still be around in 2035? (resolves N/A at the end of 2026)

Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2030?

Related questions

Will Manifold bring back calibration before LLMs are smart enough to provide a better calibration graph?

At the end of 2025, will Manifold think things have changed for the worse for us as a society?

Will Manifold have automated resolutions before 2027?

Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2025?

Will my Manifold prediction streak remain unbroken through 2025?

Will Manifold be more accurate than the Veritasium crowd-sourced estimate?

Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?

Will Manifold still be around in 2035? (resolves N/A at the end of 2026)

Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2040?

Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2030?