MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2027?
Mini
12
Ṁ1009
2028
1D
1W
1M
ALL
42%
Better
35%
The same
22%
Worse

I'll be referencing this

https://manifold.markets/calibration

Starting Brier score: 0.16781

To resolve as "better" or "worse" it should vary by more than 0.01

ManifoldMeta-ForecastingPredictions on Predictions
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
2 Comments
Sort by:
reposted

Futarchists, hold NO on Worse if you believe Manifold will continue to grow its user base.

Related questions

Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2025?
9% chance
Will Manifold bring back calibration before LLMs are smart enough to provide a better calibration graph?
38% chance
Will Manifold have automated resolutions before 2027?
71% chance
Will Manifold be more accurate than the Veritasium crowd-sourced estimate?
61% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2040?
67% chance
Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?
81% chance
At the end of 2025, will Manifold think things have changed for the worse for us as a society?
88% chance
Will my Manifold prediction streak remain unbroken through 2025?
49% chance
Will Manifold still be around in 2035? (resolves N/A at the end of 2026)
51% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2030?
59% chance

Related questions

Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2025?
9% chance
Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?
81% chance
Will Manifold bring back calibration before LLMs are smart enough to provide a better calibration graph?
38% chance
At the end of 2025, will Manifold think things have changed for the worse for us as a society?
88% chance
Will Manifold have automated resolutions before 2027?
71% chance
Will my Manifold prediction streak remain unbroken through 2025?
49% chance
Will Manifold be more accurate than the Veritasium crowd-sourced estimate?
61% chance
Will Manifold still be around in 2035? (resolves N/A at the end of 2026)
51% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2040?
67% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2030?
59% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout