South Africa filed a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on December 29, 2023, accusing Israel of violating the 1948 Genocide Convention in its military operations in Gaza.
Genocide cases at the ICJ typically take many years to reach a final determination. For context, the Bosnia v. Serbia genocide case took 14 years from filing to final judgment.
The existing market is only till the end of 2027 (Old market: https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-the-icj-determine-that-israel ). I wish they would put that in the title name since it becomes misleading to bet on.
Unlike the previous market which had a time limit until the end of 2027, this market has no time constraint and will remain open until the ICJ reaches a final determination, regardless of how long that takes.
@Samaritan would this resolve yes for Croatia v Serbia? Does it resolve yes for acts of genocide? Incitement? Convention breaches? Failing to prevent? Or does it have to be found that Israel committed genocide? So resolves no for Serbia.
If the ICJ rules that Israel did not commit genocide but that Israeli forces committed "acts of genocide", how does this resolve? NO I would guess? Like a Croatia v Serbia type verdict. It resolves NO if it just finds an incitement-only breach, yes?