Will high-quality online polls or high-quality phone polls be more accurate in the 2024 election?
Mini
1
แน50Nov 29
69%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will compile an average of national online polls taken in the 5 days before the presidential election and compare it to an average of national phone polls. Resolves YES if the online polls are closer to the national popular vote result. I will exclude mixed polls and "low quality" polls (less than two stars according to FiveThirtyEight ratings) from the averages.
Get แน1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will the 2024 President Election have a higher voter turnout than the 2020 Election?
2% chance
Will absolute voter turnout in the 2024 US Presidential election be higher than 2020?
2% chance
How will the polls and narratives perform in the 2024 US presidential election? [MC - add responses]
Will the voter turnout in the 2024 Presidential election be 64% or larger?
29% chance
Which pollster will be the most accurate in predicting the 2024 election results (popular vote)?
Will the mail-in ballot rate for 2024 be closer to 2020โs 43% (YES) than 2022โs 31.8% (NO)?
20% chance
What will the polling miss be for the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
45% chance
Will the 2024 President Election have a higher voter turnout than the 2020 Election?
3% chance
Which pollsters will get the 2024 Presidential Election right? (PV difference within 3%)