The market resolves to “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities.
I won’t be betting on this market.
Update 2025-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A temporary transfer of power will not resolve Yes.
The intent is a permanent inability to serve—e.g., death or an official determination resulting in someone else taking over his responsibilities.
Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Health-motivated resignation by Trump will resolve to Yes; no 25th Amendment invocation is required.
Incredible.
@dgga Realistic odds on this happening are in the single digits, especially after how we just saw Biden managed to survive 4 years with worse conditions
@Jessef0226 looking at the US actuarial tables(*) a 79 year old male has about 83% chance of living three more years. And that's just death.
You're of course free to argue the president has superior healthcare, but halving the death probability? I dont see it.
@LasseRasinen also being the president is an uniquely stressful position, especially for an older person. Trump himself has aged like 20 years since his nomination in 2016 and it's clear as day comparing his appearance and demeanor before-after
I think 30-35% is fairly accurate for this market even if we consider the recent signs he might have had a stroke to be a hoax.
I think some good proxies for this might be whether he faces calls to resign from Republicans:
https://manifold.markets/bens/will-5-republican-members-of-congre?r=YmVucw
...and whether he disappears for a week again:
https://manifold.markets/bens/will-trump-go-a-full-week-without-s?r=YmVucw
🤞 there are more than 3 years left
@fakebaechallenge is there any reason to think it's implausible that he saw that people were making a fuss about the bruise, got self-conscious, and decided to lay low while it healed?
@MingCat That's unlikely, people have been talking about his hand since February, why would he start to care now
As a lib, I kindly ask that you all stop being such massive libs. What's next, Bob Mueller is going to finally prove a russian conspiracy and this time he'll really be impeached?
This is a Prediction Market, not a Vote On What I Wish Would Happen Poll.
@spider I don’t like the questions framing of “become seriously ill” yet the description says death or abdication of responsibilities. If anything does happen I think MAGA keep him as a puppet even if he’s just a potato.