Will the United States no longer be a democracy within 5 years?
➕
Plus
25
Ṁ1651
2029
34%
chance

Resolves YES if at any point before the end of 2028 America is considered "not free" according to Freedom House democracy measure. Resolves NO otherwise.

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I think there’s a discrepancy between your title and description. Interesting market, though!

@JohnSmithb9be what discrepancy do you see? the market was made in November 2023

@SpeaksForTrees “not free according to freedom house” vs “no longer a democracy” is a relevant distinction IMO

@JohnSmithb9be that's certainly true, there are many ways to define and measure democracy. Freedom House falling to "not free" is what I chose for this contract and made it immediately clear in the description

the reason i chose such an extreme change to resolve yes is because if the score for America changes so drastically during this time window there will be structural changes such that other measurements and scholars consider American democracy as we've known it to not exist in a recognizable way