If ATACMS/Stormshadow are used for "deep strikes", will Putin strike/invade a NATO country?
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resolved Oct 18
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NO

Putin has threated retaliate if US/UK long range weapons are used for "deep strikes" in Russia, this is a simple yes no.

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What is the default resolution if there are no such strikes by October 17th?

bought αΉ€5,000 NO from 16% to 12%

1) what is the threshold for strike? For example, is poisoning a diplomat a strike? Is attacking a container ship a strike?

2) Does it have to be Putin that ordered the invasion/strike, and how certain must we be that he gave the order? What if it is against his wishes, or if he is removed from power beforehand?

@capybara i would say the threshold is that Russia specifically targets and publicly acknowledges that it was their intent. I mean an actual NATO country not a single politician unless its a literal head of state.

2) is outside the scope of this question - it should be assumed if Russia did a thing it was cause Putin willed it.

@SupportMonkeySupportMonke will you resolve on Oct 17?

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Ok, that's the kind of shit prediction markets are ment for. Added liquidity and boosted.

bought αΉ€100 NO

How are you determining what a β€˜deep strike’ is?

@OP that one is a bit harder - i would say in this case anything further than the current line which seems to be not further than a few klicks from the border(basically Kursk levels of depth) - if i had to be more specific basically the airfields where bombers have been taking off from or factories/industry for munitions/oil that they have so far only sent drones at.