Resolution criteria

Bangladesh's 1972 Constitution establishes Islam as the state religion under Article 2A, but it simultaneously mandates that the state ensures equal status for the practice of Hinduism, Buddhism, Christianity, and other religions. An "Islamic Republic" designation would require a formal constitutional change renaming the state to "Islamic Republic of Bangladesh" (currently it is the "People's Republic of Bangladesh"). This market resolves YES if Bangladesh's official state name is changed to include "Islamic Republic" by December 31, 2029. Resolution will be verified through official government sources, including the Bangladesh Constitution and international recognition by the United Nations or major governments. The market resolves NO if no such change occurs by the deadline.

Background

Following Sheikh Hasina's resignation in August 2024, an interim government took power with Muhammad Yunus as chief advisor, and subsequently unbanned the political party Jamaat-e-Islami. After the fall of the Sheikh Hasina led Awami League government, the newly appointed attorney general called for the removal of secularism from the constitution, and the Muhammad Yunus led interim government created a Constitutional Reform Commission which called for the removal of secularism from the constitution. The space for militant Islamism is growing, as the influence of hardline Islamist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami and Hefazat-e-Islam have grown under the interim government. Bangladesh will go to the polls on 12 February as the country seeks to reconcile a decades-long era of 'revenge politics' and return to a more democratic footing.

Considerations

One of the most unique features of the Bangladeshi Constitution is that it pledges to conserve secularism while also declaring Islam as its state religion, and currently both secularism and state religion co-exist in the Bangladeshi Constitution. The Supreme Court of Bangladesh incorporated the doctrine of basic structure into constitutional law, which holds that the Constitution cannot be amended in a way that destroys the basic structure of the Constitution, and secularism is undoubtedly connected with the constitutional identity of Bangladesh. This constitutional protection may present a significant legal barrier to formally establishing an Islamic Republic, even if political will exists.