Will I manage to achieve a sub-45 min 10k before @diadematus and 2026?
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Plus
8
แน€4690
Dec 31
80%
chance

This market is inspired by @diadematus market aiming for a sub-45 10k:

Resolution criteria:

I will need to register a 10k GPS tracked run with a start and stop of tracking with less than 45 minutes between (so none of the "moving time" bullshit that Strava offers).

If this run occurs before a point when @diadematus manages to achieve a sub-45 min 10k run and before December 31st 2025, this market will resolve to YES.

Anything else will cause resolving to NO.

I will only buy YES positions in this market.

I am not allowed to divest from bought YES holdings.

PB: 51m30s, Aug 2023

Most recent 10k: 51m52s, Aug 2024


Since I currently have a case of shin splints and not doing regular runs you can follow my progress on the rowing machine here:
https://log.concept2.com/profile/2645665

Get แน€1,000 play money
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Climbing up the ranks on the rowing machine

First time back on the treadmill in a while. First did a 5k on the rowing machine then followed up with this. 4min 36sec pace. No holders beware.

To reduce the amount of insider information I keep to myself I've signed up for a Concept2 account and will be logging my rowing workouts there while the runs aren't happening
https://log.concept2.com/profile/2645665

opened a แน€500 YES at 65% order

Current form on the rowing machine. With my case of shin splints I've had to stop with running for cardio currently. Doing rowing machine and spinning to keep up

@Tarl i'm clearly way off track, but i would say you're quite far off (Imho)...what happens if both of us don't get there this year? since this market has only 3 traders i propose extending the deadline to like March 2026 and changing the resolution rules to allow for resolving whoever got closest). i'm fine with agreeing to n/a it as well although that will be unsatisfying

I plan on resolving this as it is written. Had to take it easy on the running recently because of shin splints but I've kept up with the cardio. I still feel confident in making a sub-45 10k before the end of the year

If you think I'm far off, bet against me ๐Ÿ˜‰

@Tarl i'm not sure what to bet if my bet is "both of us won't do it by 1st Jan 2026"

@diadematus my market would resolve no, I guess I could make it clearer with failure to do the time by market close results in a NO

bought แน€310 NO from 84% to 64%
bought แน€310 NO

@Tarl lemme collect a little mana then ;)

@Tarl regardless, I am going to recommit myself to my goal and give it one last shot at consistency for like 8 weeks, before i give up. so this market is an easy NO

My bout of shin splints seems to be letting off. Got an ok pace in

bought แน€50 YES

Finding the pace. Quite tough put possible

bought แน€100 YES

Back down to a decent pace, now there's just cutting another 40 seconds per kilometer

@Tarl i did a 5k time trial-ish at almost the exact day and i'm not far off

bought แน€100 YES

First run in a while: 5k in 30 min

@diadematus seem to have injured or damaged one knee. Having some pain while putting weight on it. Will probably abstain from any real running until I've had at least ~2 weeks of the pain disappearing. Time to load up on the "No" position

bought แน€30 NO

@Tarl great news for me since i'm more focused and consistent than ever meanwhile ;).

filled a แน€25 NO at 48% order

progress last week @tarl? i traveled to a high altitude place in my country and still did a very enjoyable 21k...starting to feel very good about my consistency

@diadematus Nothing new. Currently getting ready for a move so will probably be bad with consistency for two weeks.

Today: 5k on treadmill, 25m51s

@Tarl how fast is that for you? that is close to my PB!

@diadematus for current form it's good. Looking back through my Strava I can see that I did a 5k in 24m41s in August last year so should hopefully be back at that pace in a couple of weeks