Welcome to The All Memeing Bank!
I am currently in the situation of having more balance than I can find good trading opportunities to bet it in. Therefore, I am in search of users on this site who are in the opposite situation of wanting to take on loans because they find more good trading opportunities than they have balance to invest in.
If you would like a loan, please leave a comment, and I will hopefully respond within a day or two. Initially, I may only offer much smaller loans than others (e.g. 100 mana) to build up lender trust, but I'm usually willing to take a lower interest rate, and the loan size offered may significantly increase as trust improves.
I will use this description as a publicly visible ledger of all past and active loans. At the end of the year I will use this ledger to determine market resolution.
It's possible I'm making a bunch of rookie mistakes given that I've never academically studied finance and I'm pretty much deducing the principles from off the top of my head and from depictions in fictional media, but this is my current train of thought regarding loan interest rates:
Like haggling for a purchase in a street market, as the lender I want the interest rate to be higher and the borrower wants it to be lower. For there to be a possible deal we hopefully have an overlapping range between the worst deals we are each willing to accept (the lowest interest I'll accept vs the highest interest they'll accept). The default situation for purely self-interested agents would be us both trying to convince the other that our limit is stricter than it actually is within that overlap, but if we have a degree of cooperative altruism then we can agree to be transparent and set it at the midpoint of the overlap.
The lowest interest I should be willing to accept is one that leads to expected profit just above what I would otherwise get (currently zero because it's just sitting in my balance, but possibly much more in the future if demand outpaces supply leading to competition from other borrowers), via the interest in cases where it is paid back more than cancelling out losses in cases where it isn't. The probability of payback can be roughly guessed by long term consistency and rate of positive profit growth, as well as explicit track record of paying back loans, good market resolution honesty ratings, and word of mouth from other trusted users. E.g. if I think there's only 25% probability that Tumbles will be able to pay me back by winning their recent big bets or getting bailed out again then the minimum interest rate should probably be about 300%.
Similarly, the highest interest rate it makes sense for the borrower to accept would also give endpoint profit just above what they would otherwise get (if I have a monopoly then zero, but again possibly much more if there's competition from other lenders), via the expected trading profits more than cancelling out the interest. The expected trading profits growth rate per loaned amount might be possible to estimate from their profit and investment graphs.
Train of thought regarding loan sizes and due dates currently in progress.
Active loans:
Date and time: 2025-04-14 17:00 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: Robin ( @Robincvgr )
Amount lent: 100 mana
Interest rate: 3%
Amount owed: 103 mana
Due date and time: 1 month, 2025-05-14 17:00 BST (UTC+1)Date and time: 2025-04-15 15:43 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: bagelfan ( @bagelfan )
Amount lent: 150 mana
Interest rate: 3%
Amount owed: 154.5 ~ 155 mana
Due date and time: 1 month, 2025-05-15 15:43 BST (UTC+1)Date and time: 2025-04-15 17:10 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: kbot ( @kbot )
Amount lent: 100 mana
Interest rate: 4%
Amount owed: 104 mana
Due date and time: 1 month, 2025-05-15 17:10 BST (UTC+1)Date and time: 2025-04-16 14:08 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: Evan ( @evan )
Amount lent: 100 mana
Interest rate: 4%
Amount owed: 104 mana
Due date and time: 1 month, 2025-05-16 14:08 BST (UTC+1)Date and time: 2025-04-17 13:35 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: ffs ( @4fa )
Amount lent: 100 mana
Interest rate: 4%
Amount owed: 104 mana
Due date and time: 1 month, 2025-05-17 13:35 BST (UTC+1)Date and time: 2025-04-19 13:06 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: crowlsyong ( @crowlsyong )
Amount lent: 200 mana
Interest rate: 5%
Amount owed: 210 mana
Due date and time: 1 month, 2025-05-19 13:06 BST (UTC+1)
@100Anonymous You're right that indeed if I lent 100k mana in one go this would immediately resolve yes, but I think that is very unlikely. From my perspective I would make like max 200 mana by betting yes, while quite possibly losing the 100k mana on a non-repaid loan lol, what would be the incentive to take such a huge risk in one go? I think the most likely case in which this resolves yes is that loads of users consistently borrow and pay back frequent smaller loans, possibly growing to larger loans with earned trust
@4fa yeah you've got great consistent profit growth
Would 100 mana at 4% interest due in a month be ok to start with?
I request as big of a loan as possible for an interest rate of at least 2% a month, interest rate negotiable
@spiderduckpig At LEAST 2% interest you say? How about (your entire net worth)%? /s
It looks like you have very impressive consistent rapid profit in the last few months, though for most of the time before that it was fluctuating in the low negatives.
Could you explain the cause of this huge change in performance? Can I be confident that you won't just as suddenly switch to a strategy similar to what you were doing before or worse?
@crowlsyong hmmm, your long term profit is quite negative, but in the last month things seem to be improving.
Do you know what caused the improvement, and whether we can expect it to continue?
It may be improving because I am watching @Bayesian and @SemioticRivalry and placing small bets similar to theirs.
I canβt say confidently that my trend of positive growth will continue.
I can say confidently that I want to build my manifold credit, so I will always maintain a balance that is capable of paying back a loan from user.
If you want to proof of reputation, wait until April 19 2025. I have a M1000 loan from Bayesian at 1% interest that will be due that day (so M1010 will be repaid). If all goes well, then that user will vouch for my successful repayment on or after April 19 2025.
@crowlsyong Thanks, if it's ok with you then I will wait to verify that this bayesian loan was paid back successfully π
@TheAllMemeingEye I have repaid my loan to bayesian on time and in full. I would like to discuss doing business with you if you are comfortable sending me a loan
Requesting: M200 at 5% interest = M210 due May 1 2025
Do we have a deal?
@crowlsyong sounds good π lemme just verify
@Bayesian can you confirm that the loan of 1000 mana was indeed repaid?
@evan Looks like you've got a reasonably solid profit growth.
Though I recall you mentioning elsewhere that you used to be @Unown until you did a mass burning of your mana to protest the pivot. Can I count on you not to immediately do that again without paying off debts whenever the manifold team make any more significant changes? What might be concrete examples of stuff they could do that might push you over the edge again?
@TheAllMemeingEye Yeah, you can count on that. Last time, I paid off all my debts (plus some extra mana) right before deleting my old account.
I would probably do the same thing again if real-money betting was reintroduced. If drastic economy changes were announced and these changes negatively affected my ability to use the site, I might also leave. Other than that, I don't think it's very likely.
Specifically, if the Manifold devs ever do something to the site that would cause me to leave Manifold and I estimate a <50% probability of ever re-joining, I would probably delete my account and burn all of my mana in protest. (I did not expect to come back after the pivot).
@evan Thanks for explaining π
Just one last thing, could you name a couple of the users you paid off your debts to last time, so I can verify with them?
@TheAllMemeingEye I know I took out several loans with @Fion. I'm pretty sure I had a loan with another user at some point, but I can't remember who, it might have just been Fion. It doesn't look like I can access my user payment log to check
@TheAllMemeingEye Unown was one of my more regular "customers". Had three loans of increasing size. Always paid back on time and overpaid the last loan
