Iran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026?
5
Ṁ862032
25%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2032, Iran is recognized as a liberal democracy.
If there is no regime change before 2027, resolves N/A.
Resolution will be based on the Freedom House classification, and Free or Partially Free both count. If the classification changes or is not published, I will choose a similar report.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will Iran experience regime change in 2025?
11% chance
Will Israel topple the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran by the end of 2025?
12% chance
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
5% chance
Will Iran’s regime fall in 2025?
9% chance
Will Iran be a democracy in 2030?
22% chance
Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?
41% chance
Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2025?
69% chance
Will Iran’s current government be overthrown, removed, or collapse before January 2026?
17% chance
Outcome in Iran by end of 2025? [Read description]
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
53% chance