Will the State of Israel provoke or directly cause the current regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran to collapse and be replaced by a new government by the end of 2025?
The Islamic Republic of Iran has ruled Iran since 1979. It has survived a war with Iraq and several popular revolts that it has brutally suppressed.
Israel can take direct military action against the regime such as an air strike on economic targets, or it can pursue covert operations to destabilize or outright destroy the regime.
I believe it will be difficult to disguise Israeli involvement in either case. Even if the Israeli actions are not the final actions that lead to regime change this will resolve as yes.
If anyone has additional questions or alternative hypotheses to propose please do so in the comments.
Update 2024-20-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use the Syrian civil war as an analogue for resolution criteria. A Yes resolution would occur if:
The current government/dictator flees
The military stops fighting
Territory becomes controlled by various factions
If there is ambiguity in determining these conditions, the creator will wait for more information before resolving.
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question on causality, the creator has stated that the concept of proximate cause will be a key factor in resolution. The market will not necessarily resolve YES if another state's actions are deemed the proximate cause of a regime collapse, even if prior Israeli actions were a contributing factor.
Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a hypothetical, the creator has stated that if a long-running conflict were already underway in Iran, and Israel took a decisive action (such as disabling a powerful ally of the government) which then led to the government's collapse, they would lean towards a YES resolution.
This would still be subject to a final judgment of the situation, considering any other major coinciding events.
@galaga it should in my opinion because the US wouldn’t have gotten involved but for Israel’s preemptive strike
@OP Syria had many armed groups fighting a civil war for ten years. Israel decapitates one of the most powerful aligned with the government and it falls. I would lean to yes, but on the other hand perhaps there were other events that coincided with Israel’s take down of Hezbollah. I’ll bet no one created that market.
In Syria the government the dictator fled, the military stopped fighting and the territory is now controlled by various factions. The consensus seems to be that the dismantling of Hezbollah by Israel fatally weakened the regime. I believe this is a good analogue to an Iranian regime change and will us it as criteria for resolution.
If this question concerned Syria I would resolve it as yes. If there is any ambiguity I will not resolve the question until more information is available. I take your point as to the real possibility of ambiguity and will do my best to parse the information if this event comes to pass. Thanks for your comments.
Do you think you can clarify the resolution criteria to depend less on personal judgment? To what extent must the current Iranian regime lose power to consider it toppled? What if the territory under its control is vastly reduced but it still exists as a governing entity? What if its territorial control is reduced to an area that does not include Tehran?
In addition, I fully expect it to be completely subjective to try and judge the extent to which Israel caused such a regime change. What if there was a coup in Iran right now? Previous Israeli strikes and the fear of more certainly might contribute to that—would that resolve this question yes?
If you can give some objective indicators that might go a long way to remedying the ambiguity in this market.
Channel 14 in Israel is reporting that the Israeli Retaliation against Iran will be Significant, not Moderate, and will likely cause Iran to Respond; with them further stating, “We need to prepare for a Significant Exchange of Blows, that might drag the Americans in, which Iran certainly would not want.”
@ShakedKoplewitz counterfactually, would Iranian govt collapse anyway if not for that strike on oil infra? Depends on what exactly would happen before the revolution.