Will more than 10,000 people die as a result of Trump's mass deportations?
➕
Plus
28
Ṁ2213
2029
17%
chance

Donald Trump has announced plans to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants from the United States.

The question focuses on whether these mass deportations will result in at least 10,000 deaths over the course of Trump’s new term. For the purposes of this question, “deportation-related deaths” are defined as fatalities directly resulting from or associated with the deportation process, including but not limited to:

  1. Fatalities occurring during arrest, detention or deportation, including deaths from illness, violence, accidents, overcrowding or poor conditions in deportation centers, or lack of standard medical care.

  2. Deaths resulting from exposure to unsafe conditions in the countries detainees are deported to, provided there is credible evidence linking these fatalities to the deportation.

  3. Fatalities caused by potential violence or human rights abuses directly associated with U.S. immigration enforcement or deportation policies.

Deaths of elderly detained individuals will not be counted unless the preponderance of the evidence indicates they received less medical care than would be available had they not been detained.

Deaths indirectly resulting from deportation, such as those due to the general hardships in the deported individuals’ destination countries, will not be counted unless a preponderance of the evidence indicates that these deaths are directly attributable to conditions linked to their deportation from the United States.

Data Sources:

  • Official government records (U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement) for deaths in custody or during deportation procedures.

  • Reports from credible international organizations and human rights groups (e.g., Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch) documenting fatalities related to deportation processes.

  • Investigative journalism and reports by reputable news outlets.

Timing:

  • Only deaths occurring during Trump’s new term (from the inauguration to the end of the term) will be counted. Deaths resulting from deportations initiated but not completed during this term will not count toward the total.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:

Some base rates, perhaps hallucinated:

Here's Operation Wetback:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Wetback