Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has added answer options for the following values of N:
100
500
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following definitions for how the market will be resolved:
A robotaxi service is defined as one where a user can request a ride on-demand, similar to Uber or Lyft. It will still count if riders must first join a waitlist.
The fleet size will be determined by the total number of Teslas used for an autonomous ride by someone other than the owner.
A vehicle is considered "actively operating" if it provides at least one such ride within any given week.
Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question, the creator has specified that a vehicle will be counted as a robotaxi even if a safety monitor is present, as long as there is no human in the driver's seat.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Do the current 10 or so robotaxis count for your criteria? E.g. with the safety monitor in the car.
@MarkosGiannopoulos Yeah, I'll be generous and count anything without a human in the driver's seat, so the current count is about 10.
Of course, I expect they'll need to remove the safety monitors to scale the system.
Do private Teslas with FSD activated count as robotaxis?
Do private Teslas made available for carsharing count as robotaxis?
My main distinction here would be explicitly produced and used cybercabs vs other teslas owned by carsharing services or private owners
@tobiasscheuer My definition would be that someone can request a ride on-demand, just like with Uber or Lyft. It would still count if the riders have to join a waitlist first.
Carsharing by private owners or third-party services is going to be tricky to measure, and I'm not sure exactly what data will be available. But I'll try to determine the fleet size based on the total number of Teslas actually used for autonomous rides by someone other than the owner at least once within any given week. That seems like the most reasonable definition of "actively operating".
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I agree that with this definition this is going to be tricky. Initially I went with the title implication of the company Tesla owning&operateing N robotaxis. Like this it's going to be hard to predict and resolve. Since you are even trading in this market I cannot participate.
I hope when the time comes around to resolve everything goes well :)
They are starting with 10-20 vehicles they are the 4th robotaxis to start in Austin. Waymo only has 1500
@Bayesian Well, I made the market because @MolbyDick was predicting around a million.
But given the current probabilities, I'll start adding some lower values.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 this will be a fun one, Tesla already has the installed capacity to produce more then 1Million robotaxis a year.. and I’m not even talking about the cybercab