Will the 2024 US presidential election be a landslide in the Electoral College?

Ṁ3301

Jan 1

14%

chance

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Based on the definition from 538: Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight.

The election is a landslide if the winning candidate receives at least 350 electoral votes. I will ignore faithless electors.

As of June 11th, the current 538 prediction is 33%:

Biden wins an Electoral College landslide: 23%
Trump wins an Electoral College landslide: 10%

️ Politics 🇺🇸 US Politics 🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election 2024 US Election

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Upgraded to basic!

This seems somewhat more likely after Biden's terrible performance in the first debate.

This seems somewhat more likely after Trump's terrible performance at everything. (Also, Harris now, lol)

Free mana here, No upsets is at 72% — upsets are required for either candidate to surpass 320 EVs

https://manifold.markets/ChinmayTheMathGuy/2024-presidential-election-result-m

bought Ṁ4 NO

Biden can get 350 with every 2020 state + Texas + NC + Florida or Alaska, whereas Trump needs every 2020 state + Virginia + New Mexico + Minnesota + Colorado. These maps are not impossible. If we naively extrapolate 2020 partisan bias of each state, one candidate needs a popular vote margin of about 10% for this to happen.

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