Will Trump sign a bill by the end of 2025 with a total cost of at least $N over 10 years according to the CBO?
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resolved Jul 4
Resolved
YES
N = $1 trillion
Resolved
YES
N = $2 trillion
Resolved
YES
N = $3 trillion

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It's now been signed: https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/trump-to-sign-one-big-beautiful-bill-ceremony-today-watch-live-2025-07-04/

bought Ṁ200 N = $3 trillion YES

Final cost according to the CBO: $3.3 trillion. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cddz3n6vz0go.amp

I'll wait to resolve until Trump actually signs the bill, of course.

opened a Ṁ1,000 N = $2 trillion NO at 50% order

For reference, the current bill is scored by the CBO as costing $2.4 trillion: https://apnews.com/article/cbo-deficits-tax-cuts-trumps-big-beautiful-bill-64d7de49aef62ba07b7f6f45c1ca73d1

So if it passes in its current form, $1 trillion and $2 trillion would resolve YES.

I expect the cost to be reduced substantially to satisfy the budget hawks on the Republican side, so I've put some NO limit orders on $2 trillion.

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