Asking for a friend… Will a specific mid-level (FS-03) Foreign Service Officer Generalist be dismissed without cause during the first two years of the Trump administration? This market will resolve as "Yes" if the officer's employment is effectively terminated due to administrative action by the new administration. This does not necessarily need to occur through a reclassification to Schedule F. It could also involve the creation of an untenable work situation—such as the cessation of salary, a mass relocation, or any other action that forces the officer out without direct cause.
This market will not resolve as "Yes" if the officer resigns, retires, or leaves for any reason unrelated to blanket administrative action by the new administration. Due to the ambiguity of the resolution criteria, I will not be placing a bet in this market.
To prevent an N/A resolution, if the officer leaves the service but the reasons are not explicitly clear, this market will resolve proportionally based on the percentage of employees at the same rank who have left the service for any reason.
@ShakedKoplewitz This is a specific individual. The individual is not on any reprimand. He has a fairly normal FSO career. If the individual is fired as part of some mass firing wave, then this resolves as yes. If there is a mass firing wave, but the individual is unaffected, this resolves as no. If the individual leaves, and its due to a mixture of ambiguous reasons, I will make some best faith effort (the specifics are tbd) to settle this to the percentage of how many of his colleagues have left the service. I'm thinking I'll pick the people he works with now as the sample.
@TonyBaloney I'm very confused how this can possibly be so high. Career civil servants are rarely fired