🪨📄✂️Manifold vs Tumbles, in a Rock Paper Scissors showdown!🪨📄✂️

One round per day, with each round resolving at 4:20pm PST

Best of Seven (first to win four rounds is victorious)

Tumbles is allowed to bet NO on this market, but can't sell, and can't bet YES

view previous rounds and other related markets

Current Score:

Manifold: 0

Tumbles: 0

Detailed rules can be found on the decision market for each round:

Round 1 market will be posted tomorrow, round 1 will end on Sunday

What is Futarchy?

Futarchy is a system for making decisions as a group invented by Robin Hanson. To make Futarchy work, you need an agreed upon goal (in this case, winning RPS), and you need a conditional prediction market called a 'decision market' for each option the group could choose to try and achieve that goal (in this case, choosing rock or paper or scissors). Each decision market is predicting the same thing (in this case, "will Manifold defeat Tumbles"), but each of them resolves N/A if their corresponding action is not taken. So once the decision is made, only one of the decision markets remains, the one corresponding to the option that is predicted to have the best chance of leading to success.

More about Futarchy