Will a single natural disaster event kill more than 50,000 people in 2024?
37
Ṁ8835
Jan 1
14%
chance

This excludes famine or epidemic/ pandemics.

In the past 30 years there have been aprox. 10 natural disaster events that have killed more than 50,000 people, including earthquakes and heat waves.

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Crudely, this should be around 13% because 1 year out of 3 and there's 40% of the year left.