If Netanyahu is PM at the end of July 2025, will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire have lasted according to the agreement?
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Aug 2
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"Conditional on the cease-fire lasting according to the agreed terms."

  • Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market refers specifically to the March cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, which the creator notes has since failed. It does not refer to the more recent Israel-Iran cease-fire.

  • Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the resolution of this market now depends only on whether Netanyahu is the Prime Minister of Israel at the end of July 2025.

    • If Netanyahu is PM, the market will resolve to No.

    • If Netanyahu is not PM, the market will resolve to N/A.

🇮🇱 IsraelWorldArab-Israeli ConflictNews🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict
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@traders , to be clear, this market refers to the March cease-fire between Israel and Hamas which has since failed, not the Israel-Iran cease-fire that is currently relevant.

@WalterMartin This market will either resolve to No or N/A depending on whether Netanyahu is PM at the end of July.

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