Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible evidence emerges, by December 31, 2025, indicating that the explosions at Iranian fuel and gunpowder factories were caused by foreign actors. Such evidence may include official statements from Iranian authorities, verified reports from reputable international media, or findings from independent investigations attributing the incidents to foreign involvement. If no such evidence is presented by the resolution date, the market will resolve to "No."
Background:
Iran has experienced several significant explosions at military and industrial facilities in recent days:
Shahid Rajaei Port Explosion (April 26th 2025): A massive explosion at the Shahid Rajaei port in Bandar Abbas resulted in numerous casualties and extensive damage. Reports suggested the presence of sodium perchlorate, a chemical used in missile propellants. Iran has claimed this was an accident. The US has sanctioned 6 entities for their role in procuring this from China.
An explosion at the Ava Nar Parsian Chemical Industries warehouse in the Meymeh district of Isfahan province on April 29th 2025. Ava Nar Parsian manufactures fireworks and gunpowder and operates under the supervision of Iran’s National Security Council.
A fire at a fuel depot in Zahedan on April 28th 2025
Considerations:
Determining foreign involvement in such incidents is complex, often involving classified information and geopolitical sensitivities. Traders should consider the reliability of sources, potential biases, and the broader geopolitical context when evaluating evidence related to these events.
(Description generated by AI & edited by me for correctness and relevance. Please let me know if you spot any additional errors.)
Update 2025-04-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:
If a fourth event occurs before resolution, the market resolves to Yes if 3 out of 4 incidents have credible evidence of foreign actor involvement.
If no additional events occur, the market resolves to Yes only if all three known incidents have credible evidence of foreign actor involvement.
The focus is on non-coincidental timing of multiple incidents, not solely on a single explosion.
@Jwags The spirit of the question is whether the timing of these events are coincidental or not, so if there's another event in the next week or two and 3/4 had foreign actor involvement, that would resolve yes, but otherwise it would need to be all three. Could be one entity behind all three or could be one entity causing one & a different entity causing another in hopes the first would get blamed, but I suspect we won't ever know those kind of details and I'll do my best to honor the spirit of non-coincidentality if it comes to that.