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Will Trump's first executive order be about immigration and/or the border?
6
๐•Š19.35
Feb 2
47%
chance

Resolves YES the first executive order of Trump's second term is primarily about immigration and/or border security, NO if it is not primarily about either topic, and N/A if he has not signed any executive orders by April 29th (i.e. first 100 days).

Context

  • The first executive order of Trump's first term was #13765, a.k.a. "Executive Order Minimizing the Economic Burden of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Pending Repeal". An equivalent market would have resolved NO.

  • From his first term, the first executive order that would have resolved an equivalent market YES was his 3rd, #13767, "Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvements".

  • For more examples, his 4th & 5th executive orders in 2016 would also have resolved this YES.

  • Regardless, there will naturally be some subjectivity in resolution. I intend to be fairly broad, but it needs to be primarily about immigration and/or border security, not just indirectly influence on these topics.

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To bet on the exact topic, see @Gabrielle 's more detailed market:

/Gabrielle/what-will-trumps-first-executive-or