Will the Federal Government effectively ban the use of gas stoves in new construction by 2026?
140
á¹€4170
2026
12%
chance

Resolves to YES if some combination of federal laws and regulations makes it impractical for a substantial share of newly constructed buildings to install gas stoves. State and local regulations do not count here. Sufficiently high taxes would count if they succeed in practice.

Close date updated to 2026-01-01 6:59 pm

🇺🇸 US PoliticsHealthUnited States
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What if lawsuits along the lines of asbestos lawsuits cause it to be banned de facto but not de jure?

I suppose you're talking about the US federal government? because that seems more likely than the German one banning gas stoves.

predicts NO

@LudwigBald Yep he means US gov: https://thezvi.substack.com/p/on-cooking-with-gas

@LudwigBald Confirmed this is USA government only.

Related market, about whether they propose banning by 2025:

Substantial share is ... 10%?

@MartinRandall More like 25%, I think.

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Zvi Mowshowitz

Since I haven't seen it elsewhere, and I wanted to include it in the post I'm finishing, here you go: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-the-federal-government-effecti

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