By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself? | Manifold

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

14

Ṁ110

2027

36%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Yes: There is at least one publicly reported instance.

No: There are no publicly reported instances.

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And what would qualify as an AI cybersecurity system? Does it have to be trained specifically for cybersecurity? Deployed originally for cybersecurity uses? Does a generalist model with cybersecurity capabilities count?

Would a contained experiment count, like e.g. Anthropic doing model organisms of misalignment or ARC evals creating a concrete demonstration? Or does it have to be "in the wild"?

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By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

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Related questions

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

By the end of 2024, will there be a major security vulnerability reported to be caused by AI generated code?

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

By 2029, will there be a public "rogue AI" incident?

(AI virus) When will an AI first replicate onto new hardware against user intent?

By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?

Will a major AI company acknowledge the possibility of conscious AIs by 2026?