Invalid contract
The commentary on my yes/no market about the deal
https://manifold.markets/ae/hamas-accepts-trumps-proposed-peace?r=YWU
indicated demand for a percentage resolution version. Instead, I offer this numeric market.
Similar to the other market, I will use my best judgment as to the exact count. Example: If there is agreement on slightly amended versions of two points, I may count that as +1 rather than +0 or +2. Please do not make annoying comments about fractional resolution.
I will extend the resolution timeline long enough to get a good signal on the actual agreement. If there is a phased timeline (see comments in other market), I will use my best judgment, favoring timely resolution over exactness on a longer timeline. I would like this resolved some time this month (October), end of year at the outside.
Enjoy!
Update 2025-10-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If no final deal is reached, this resolves to 0, even if both sides agree on many points.
Update 2025-10-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The resolution date has been extended to end of year to allow for extended talks. Market may resolve sooner if there's a clear signal.
Update 2025-10-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator is planning to resolve NO on answers "0" and "1-4" unless traders provide good arguments against this resolution. This indicates that at least 5 points from Trump's Gaza peace deal have been agreed to by both Israel and Hamas.
My feeling is that the 20 points + 1 map original plan may end-up in ~4 deals of 2-7 points each:
1st) Hamas+Israel on hostages + withdrawal to line 1 --> Done
2nd) Palestine Authority + international community on the interim Gaza governance --> today Tony Blair meets PA, without Hamas
3rd) ISF + Israel withdrawal --> tomorrow 20 head of states + UN chief meet without Israel in Egypt and they will likely prepare a proposal for Israel to be accepted
4th) disarmament + surrender + amnesty --> once power handover to GITA+PA and IDF replacement by ISF are clear, they will call Hamas and ask them to accept and disarm
For sure there will be a lot of additional negotiations between the parties, back-and-fort versions, overlap in some points, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see more than one document, each signed by different actors, for the remaining points. Then the resolution of this market will be tricky.
In this first agreement we have:
Point 3
Point 4, partially
Point 5
Point 7
Point 16, line 1 of the map
we expect we may have subsequent agreements, but they will probably last a while, if they ever get done
@MiguelLM Thanks. Central points 1, 2, and 13 are missing. As are also-important points 9, 12, and 15. I'll keep monitoring the situation.
@ae My argument is only that you should delay making this resolution because "shit happens". No harm in delaying resolution for 48 hours.
I tend to think this negotiation round's results will be announced as:
A) negotiations failed (0 points)
or
B) plan agreed (20 points), even if some of the points include vague wording that needs to be detailed later
I don't expect an announcement like "we agreed this 13 points, and we don't care any longer about these other 7 points"
@MiguelLM Agreed. Note though that this'll resolve to creator's best judgement on the number of agreed upon points, not media headlines or announcements.
@Primer If it helps, I will try to be pretty conservative in applying my judgment — in the sense that if there is media consensus by reputable outlets, I will follow that even if I disagree personally. I don't expect this scenario to happen.