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So what would the 2024 deficit be? The sum of the deficits from each month? The average?

edit: grok told me you just add them xD

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Trade deficit can be a bit noisy as a data point. Voting yes right now just for mean reversion and vibes

I initially took a YES position because I thought it was a good price, but now I'm thinking the actual odds are lower, down near 20%. The problem is he's going to do plenty of talking about tariffs during 2025, but I think it's unlikely they'll take effect before 2026. In the meantime, business communities will do what they always do when tariffs are coming: stockpile imports ahead of the price hike. That'll drive the trade deficit higher in the short run.

Additionally, whatever mix of inflation and economic growth we have will make all the numbers a couple percent larger year-to-year. This prediction market doesn't talk about adjustments for that, so I figure that there's a >50% chance that an existing deficit "grows" in 2025, even without meaningful changes.

@DanHomerick based on my reading of the last trump presidency, this is preciely what happened. the overall trade deficit (and specifically with china, who was trump's only real big target his last presidency) the deficit expanded through 2018, and then finally reduced during 2019 and 2020 (altho covid also likely a factor)

sweepified

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