By how much will the Fed cut interest rates in 2024?
52
แน€38k
Jan 1
0.2%
negative (Fed raises rates)
0.1%
0
1%
0.25%
1.4%
0.50%
7%
0.75%
68%
1%
19%
1.25%
3%
1.5%
0.2%
1.75% or more

Resolves to the difference between 5.50% (the end-of-2023 value) and the upper limit of the Fed's federal funds rate target range shown on FRED

From https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions

  • Fed cuts interest rates at least fifty basis points (90%)

  • Fed cuts interest rates at least 75 basis points (70%)

  • Fed does not cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points (70%)

2024 Matt Yglesias PredictionsInterest RatesFederal reserveInflation
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Arb https://manifold.markets/Shump/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-f?r=TG9nYW5Pd2Vucw

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