Resolves to the winner of Masters league season 24.
@HillaryClinton @MingCat wanna fill my limitorder on semiotic? YES at 45%
@Bayesian how do I know you don't have inside info that Semiotic is going to make certain moves, or you're going to lock in your gains etc?
@Bayesian Why? Didn't expect Putin's tweet? haha
I'm still confused if you have inside knowledge on Semiotic buying or selling more shares. I'm also confused if you plan to hold your Carney shares through the election.
@HillaryClinton i don't have inside knowledge. i just thought semiotic spent the most mana on yes on carney and he's gonna win. but ig you spent a lot of yes too, which i hadn't seen
@Bayesian Semiotic spent the most by far, however some of those buys were before April. Accounting for that, you're honestly not far behind the two of us.
Yes, if we included Semiotics Pre-April buys, I'd have little chance.
@Bayesian Interesting. You're probably selling yourself short in your personal chances of winning then. I've been selling of my yes shares on you because I got bearish signs from you. I assumed shenanigans haha.
So doing the math I have about a 100k more shares than you, which would yield me a hypothetical 17k more, but @Bayesian and @SemioticRivalry are 10k-ish ahead of me so I'd have a lead of 7k? But I have way less available mana to fire off for trades. I really don't think I have a huge advantage. I'm def a contender though.
I sold off Bayesian shares because it sounded like you gave up lol.
@Jessef0226 @travis What are your thoughts? You guys are predicted to lose, even though you're in 1st and 3rd. #Whales
Shameless plug to prove a point:
https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/will-anyone-with-a-net-worth-below
@HillaryClinton Well I can't really blame my net worth because my cash balance hasn't dropped below 200k since election night. I'm just not very good at finding big trades.
@HillaryClinton Well I could spend more time hunting for trades, but I already take every profitable trade that I can find.
@brod What are your thoughts on the pay to win nature of this? You have any stats on the correlation between net worth and chance of winning?
@HillaryClinton I don’t have any stats but there’s definitely a correlation, net worth compounds
Ideally if leagues are designed to measure skill you’d want to judge on risk-adjusted percentage returns, not raw profits. Otherwise you can max your win probability without any skill by coin flipping as a whale
But raw profit is a schelling point, no one’s gonna disagree how to measure it, other exchanges do it… idk
@brod I feel like percent return should be a component instead of purely raw gains. Otherwise most people have 0% chance of winning unless they do a coin flip.
Like right now Jesse and Travis are doing really well, but will never be predicted to win because their net worths are too low.
high percent return also gets harder as your networth grows so idk. correlation between high net worth and chance of winning is very high bc both are caused by being good, but i'd be curious ab the diff in correlation if you only take ppl with high networth because they won a coinflip, or bc they bought mana, rather than amassing it over hundreds of markets
@Bayesian yeah scaling is a skill in itself, M10k profit is more impressive if you have M100k net worth than M1mil but 1% profits is more impressive on M1mil than M100k
net worth does measure skill but also time on the site and luck to an extent
@brod I'm not an expert on these things, but something like 50% profit, 50% ROI would be fairer. Sure, in the super long run things will even out, but that takes years.
@Bayesian correlation is very high over years. But Month to month, it's much easier for a whale to win.
If I give two equally skilled players 100k and 200k, the 200k person is going to win more in raw points.