Who will win Masters Season 27?
14
Ṁ5153
Aug 1
20%
Brad
14%
Bayesian
8%
Panfilo
7%
Tim
7%
chris (strutheo)
5%
Eric Neyman
4%
skibidist
4%
bagelfan
3%
Christopher Randles
3%
Chad
3%
nikki
2%
Floris van Doorn
1.9%
Ziddletwix
1.5%
Cory
1.3%
Plant
1.1%
totalverb
1.1%
The Wabi Sabi
1.1%
Travis
1.1%
Agh
1.1%
Weezing

Resolves to the winner of Masters league season 27.

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Suppose a few (or several) people decided to funnel suggestions regarding markets they had high confidence in to one of the 1 percenters, thereby boosting them to #1.

Sounds like a win/win.

@jessald they’d probably both need a bigger perceived edge than 0.5ppt to bet enough to win

@brod struggling to see what powerpoint has to do with this

@jessald I guess you would want to look at the ratio of net worth (or balance) to % chance of winning

@jessald currently, betting on a longshot candidate would net you max ~3000M-ish in liquidity. there are a few options where it'd be more, but that's only because the user has a NO order on themselves, presumably they would remove it.

i do not think coordinating the ~50k-100k profits typically needed to win masters is worth winning a few extra thousand mana on this market. over time, you could presumably build a much larger long shot position if you were careful, but if the plan is to coordinate between a large number of people, it would be hard to get unsuspecting counterparties. plus, most profit opportunities are not available forever—it would be easy enough to DM someone "good bet here", but this would not be very sneaky, their profit would be steadily climbing all month!

it is of course fine to DM someone profit opportunities, but it's important to note that you are not allowed to bet poorly against someone (expecting to lose) in order to transfer profits to them. that's by far the most direct way to boost someone to win masters, and it's super against the rules

Is anyone willing to admit they are specifically trying to win this month?

@Eliza I’m for sure trying to win, but I don’t know that there are enough tennis bettors for me to do it.

@polymathematic also my appetite for risk is way lower than some others’ cough Brad cough

bought Ṁ25 Tim YES

@polymathematic Maybe someone will convince me to bet my entire life savings on the Tour de France this month.

@Eliza I hear there’s this fishmonger from Denmark who almost died last year, who’s on a small budget team; I bet he’d be a good outsider 😃