This question concerns 538's election forecast model. Since launching on 11 June with Biden in the lead, the predicted winner has switched twice (on 14 June & 21 June). Between today (25 June) and the election (5 Nov) inclusive, how many times will the predicted winner switch under the model?
Details. Resolution is according to the "win probability" version of the model:
Ties do not count as switches.
The model's back, and Harris is now in the lead.
Minor issue; the Biden vs Trump projections don't seem to be available anymore at 538 to verify the older count of switches -- but the Internet Archive provides.
Thanks @SEE! Can confirm: the model is back up and there have been 4 switches between June 25 and today (Aug 23). The most recent was on Aug 8 (to Harris).
Hi @traders, 538's forecast is currently suspended, but the party's not over yet. Since June 25th with Biden leading, I count 3 switches so far (using the win probability version of the model): July 1 (to Trump), July 12 (to Biden), & July 19 (to Trump).