Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2026?
17
Ṁ11182026
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%).
Some experts believe Russia might militarily seize Narva in a Crimea-style operation to stress test NATO.
Will Russia militarily seize Narva before the end of 2026?
See this question but for other years:
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?
15% chance
Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?
26% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2027?
5% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?
27% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2028?
7% chance
Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2026
6% chance
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2026?
4% chance
Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
8% chance
Russian attacks or invades Latvia by mid 2026
11% chance