The 44th Ontario General Election is tentatively scheduled to be held on June 4, 2026. The Progressive Conservative Party under Premier Doug Ford won the 2022 Ontario General Election, forming a majority government with 67 seats (out of 124 total seats) in the Provincial Legislature.
In order for market to resolve as YES, the Progressive Conservative party must win the most amount of seats than the other parties, meaning it could be either a majority government or minority government. Additionally, Doug Ford must be the party leader and stay as Premier of Ontario.
If Doug Ford steps down as Leader, or the PCs are unable to form a majority or minority government, market will resolve as NO.
Current odds are 96% chance of a PC government with a 1% tie and a 3% chance of an OLP minority according to 338Canada due to vote-splitting between the OLP and NDP.
https://338canada.com/ontario/
The market is incredibly undervaluing this, even factoring out the likelihood that things may change completely over the next 2 and a bit years.