Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
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Plus
43
Ṁ7868
2027
18%
chance

Resolves N/A if there is no o4 model. o4 is defined as any compute setting on the o4 model. Something like deepresearch (which is based on o3/o4) would also resolve yes.

  • Update 2025-04-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): o4 mini Exclusion Clarification

    • o4 is defined as any compute setting on the o4 model.

    • o4 mini is explicitly excluded from being considered as o4.

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bought Ṁ25 YES

They have to almost 4x the o4-mini score for this to happen, so definitely unlikely. However, given how much they were willing to spend on compute to get an unexpectedly high score on a similar high profile benchmark with o3 earlier it could happen, especially given a few months more of tinkering.

12% was simply a bit too low

o4 mini is not o4 btw

Humanity's last exam?

@ken https://agi.safe.ai/

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