Worth mentioning that this market can resolve No as early as October 1st given the clarification that the three month period has to end by 2024.

@grofigaszadosijv can you confirm just in case?

"multiple month (minimum 3) ceasefire happens before the end of 2024"

What if this begins on December and only becomes multi-month by February?

@ShoaibM it has to be by 2024 so If it starts in december it would still resolve as no

Define ceasefire. Likeliest outcome seems to be Hamas dismantled and a new governing body installed (with which Israel is not officially at war, but with Israel never making a formal ceasefire with Hamas), but still occasional bursts of terrorism or counterterrorism operations. Not sure how you'd count that.

@ShakedKoplewitz I would count it as an official announcement by the Israeli government (or another government that's involved in the war) that says they are ending the war/doing a ceasefire.

Suggest editing title to "by EoY 2024", or "by 2025" to avoid confusion