Will Kalshi's market on the existence of a room temperature superconductor by the end of 2024 resolve "yes"?
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This market resolves to whatever this Kalshi market resolves to: https://kalshi.com/markets/supercon/roomtemp-superconductor

Linked market's resolution criteria from filing: The Underlying for this Contract is peer-reviewed research on superconductivity (excluding research conducted by researchers at the institutions of the authors of the two July 2023 papers on LK-99). Such research must be published by a journal in the first quartile of Condensed Matter Physics journals ranked by SCImago Journal Rank at the time of resolution or any journal with a SJR rank of >1.0. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Full filing: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/regulatory/rulebook/contract_terms/SUPERCON.pdf

SciencesuperconductivityLK-99
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predicts NO

@horse if the Kalshi market is cancelled, Kalshi ceases to exist, etc, will this N/A, or will it resolve NO?

predicts NO

@chrisjbillington I'll go with N/A in that case, I think that's the more natural interpretation given that the description takes precedence over the title.

predicts NO

My bad, this is a duplicate of https://manifold.markets/jack/roomtemp-superconductor-reported-in.

Room-temp superconductor reported in major journal by end of 2024? (Kalshi)
32% chance. Please note: Kalshi's rules as stated do not require ambient pressure. Resolves the same as https://kalshi.com/markets/supercon/roomtemp-superconductor Copy of the summary and some relevant excerpts of the rules: If an eligible peer-reviewed journal publishes research that reports that a material is room-temperature superconductive (it has a critical temperature greater than room temperature, exhibits 10^-10 ohm-cm electrical resistivity or less, and exhibits the Meissner effect), then the market resolves to Yes. a peer-reviewed research on superconductivity (excluding research conducted by researchers at the institutions of the authors of the two July 2023 papers on LK-99) reports the discovery of a material that has both a critical temperature (Tc) which exceeds 296 kelvin (73.13 degrees Fahrenheit), electrical resistivity of 10^-10 ohm-centimeters or lower, and which demonstrates the Meissner effect. That material need not be LK-99. Eligible journals include those in the first quartile ("Q1") of SJR's condensed matter physics journals or any journal above a 1.0 SJR ranking. Full rules: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/regulatory/rulebook/contract_terms/SUPERCON.pdf

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