In 2040, will there be a consensus that large-scale fraud occurred in the 2020 US presidential election? [$10k Liquid]
➕
Plus
26
Ṁ2675
2041
8%
chance

Definite criteria are difficult, but enough votes to flip a close swing state within that state would resolve this YES. Either party counts. Resolves to the judgement of whatever system Manifold uses to judge complicated resolutions, or my judgement if nobody who bet disagrees.

️ Politics🇺🇸 US Politics🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
2 Comments
24 Holders
53 Trades


Sort by:
1y

1 - it seems this resolves YES even if it's just one state that, if flipped, wouldn't make Trump the winner (e.g. Wisconsin), right?

2 - does it count if fraud flipped a state (e.g. NC) for Trump?

1y

yes and yes

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.

Related questions