Will I pay Manifold over $100 this year?
12
แน€1497
Dec 31
15%
chance

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "YES" if I have spent more than $100 USD on Manifold Markets by December 31, 2025. It will resolve to "NO" if the total amount spent is $100 or less by the end of 2025.

This includes:

  • Purchases of Mana, Manifold's virtual currency.

  • Any other purchases or subscriptions paid to Manifold Markets

This excludes:

  • Manifest tickets

  • Charitable donations


Background:
The goal of this market is to surface medium-term monetization strategies.
During the sweepstake era, I purchased ~$50 of Mana in 2024.
I don't plan to buy more mana at the moment, as I have plenty to spare.
I don't currently see much value in boosting a market.

But I generally like the idea of supporting Manifold.

Get แน€1,000 play money
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bought แน€250 NO

Still no way to spend $ except mana AFAIK? So seems unlikely at this point.
It's not for lack of want!

I spent over $100 on codebuff, so manifold affiliated teams now have a proven track record of getting me to pay up ๐Ÿ˜‚