When will humanity's last exam be saturated? (>80%)
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44
Ṁ8373
2030
5%
2025
35%
2026
28%
2027
8%
2028
5%
2029
3%
2030
16%
later / never

Resolves to the year in which an AI first achieves an accuracy of at least 80%.

Text-only models are allowed. o3-mini (high) is currently in the lead with an accuracy of 13.0%

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Huh, I checked a random question in there out of curiosity and the given answer is just wrong.

Related market: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/what-will-be-the-best-ai-performanc

What does this resolve to if it never gets >80%, e.g. if more than 20% of the questions are broken? I'm guessing "later"

@Nikola fixed ty

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