Will Grok 3 beat DeepSeek r1 in LiveBench?
Will Grok 3 beat DeepSeek r1 in LiveBench?
➕
Plus
51
Ṁ14k
resolved Apr 11
Resolved
N/A

Resolves as soon as Grok 3 has a rating in https://livebench.ai. DeepSeek-r1 currently has a global average of 71.57, which Grok 3 would have to beat for this market to resolve as YES.

Credit to @ChaosIsALadder for the market format.

  • Update 2025-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:

    • The market will resolve based on the first global score of a Grok 3 model.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money


Sort by:
11d

at this point it seems sort of likely that a very different model will be the first with api access... can we NA this now?

1mo

what happens if grok3 is significantly updated before all its scores are released on livebench?

1mo

@CrypticQccZ i think it just resolves based on the first global score of a grok 3 model

sold Ṁ32 NO3d

@jim resolves yes now, in that case

3d

@jim ok grok3 is below deepseek but grok3 mini high thinking is above. imo this should be an NA

1mo

Which Grok 3? The reasoning variant or non reasoning model?

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.