For the purpose of this market, I will have "gone" if I am in the US for at least 1 day between may 28 and June 8 (2025).

I want to go to Manifest.

During Manifest I will be living in Ireland. I am not flying to the US for one weekend, so I would also get tickets for LessOnline and the Mystery Summer Camp.

I'm currently in the Netherlands. I'm starting a new job in Dublin next week. I do not yet have an apartment there, but I have arranged something until June 4th. I have been through this before (in Dublin) and finding an apartment was a nightmare. If it takes me too long to find an apartment I will probably not be able to go. It's also possible that I will not be able to go due to not being able to get time off, but this seems unlikely.

Tickets are getting more expensive tomorrow. It's not clear to me if tickets are transferable/refundable, but I have contacted the LessOnline people to ask if they sell ATM options on tickets. For the purpose of this market, if I pay money for an option this counts as buying a ticket. For the purpose of answers 3 and 4, if I buy but don't use an option, I will treat this as if I bought a ticket at the strike price and got a refund for the difference between that and the option.

If I get detained by mr Trump and am unable to resolve the market, I ask mods to resolve this to "Yes, but I regret having spent the money".

• Update 2025-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cost Overrun Condition:

  • The outcome of the market may be resolved as "Yes, but I regret having spent the money" if I end up spending a lot more than I expected.

• Update 2025-04-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:

  • Flight Refundability: Flight tickets are now booked and are not refundable.

  • Cost Regret Calculation: The cost of the flights is included when calculating whether I regret having spent the money.

  • 80% Ticket Recovery: The flight cost is excluded from the calculation for recovering 80% of the ticket price.