Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?

Mini

Ṁ11k

Jan 1

ALL

95%

Any Amazon employee

88%

Any Meta employee

88%

Any OpenAI employee

85%

Any Apple employee

82%

Any Huawei employee

74%

Anyone who placed a bet in 2022, but not in 2023

67%

Any Goldman Sachs employee

63%

Any employee (CEO not included) of Polymarket

60%

Any Dell employee

60%

Any Netflix employee

58%

Anyone who spent at least 24 hours straight under 10% in this market (including "any"/"anyone" answers)

58%

Anyone who made a Manifold account after finding out about the site from Bet on Love

51%

Any Lenovo employee

41%

Any Tencent employee

40%

Any Sony employee

36%

Nate Silver

34%

Destiny

34%

Anyone with 10,000 or more followers on SoundCloud

34%

Anyone who has been or will this year be on a ballot as a candidate for US Congress (House or Senate)

33%

Any Current State Representative

Will require some sort of proof/confirmation that it is the real user if their account is not marked as Verified.

Creating a limit order counts as making a bet.

The employee questions are for current employees only. Any employee can provide me proof privately for these questions. Please do not dox other users' employment.

If they placed a bet on Manifold during 2024 but before this market's creation, will still resolve YES when proven.

Ends at midnight EST on 31 December 2024.

Moderators are welcome to resolve any of these if I'm offline. No need to ping me.

Feel free to suggest more answers in the comments and I might add them!

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18 Comments

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opened a Ṁ1,000 Answer #329b5e60413c YES at 99.0% order

@june https://manifold.markets/NoahSternig https://manifold.markets/LuanaLopesLara

Noah Sternig (@NoahSternig)

@shankypanky if you're around

proof: manifest

bought Ṁ30 Answer #687ec13e51c3 NO

yeah looks like June has been afk for a couple of months so I'll have a look

@june are you around? can you please resolve the options in the comments below? 🙏

bought Ṁ388 Answer #bd39267f6923 YES

https://manifold.markets/LawrenceLessig

https://www.linkedin.com/in/lessig (204K followers)

@nikki woah nice catch

bought Ṁ189 Answer #10e2f8d11615 YES

bought Ṁ553 Answer #178ecf931c3d YES

bought Ṁ200 Answer #7ab8f699f867 YES

@june I work for Microsoft, so that resolves YES. Message me if you need my email address for verification.

Surprised to see so many answers stay high despite this market passing its peak popularity without anyone from those groups revealing themselves.

bought Ṁ5 Answer #2df12dc89cfc YES

Hmm

I'm a Google employee and I just made a bet on this question. Could you resolve it now?

I know users who can resolve a few of these but I don't feel comfortable sharing someone else's employer

@shankypanky Yeah, good opportunity for me to note: no doxxing other users!

@june how do you resolve those then?

@Tomoffer People can provide their own employers, just not the employers of others

They may be doing layoffs but Google employees aren't that rare yet

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