Will a major earthquake with a magnitude of 8.5 or greater occur in the Pacific Ring of Fire before the end of 2025?
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23
Ṁ9076
resolved Jul 30
Resolved
YES

This question will resolve as YES if a major earthquake with a magnitude of 8.5 or greater occurs in the Pacific Ring of Fire before December 31, 2025, as reported by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) or a similar authoritative source.

The earthquake can occur in any country located in the Pacific Ring of Fire, which includes areas such as the coasts of Chile, Peru, Japan, and Indonesia. The magnitude of the earthquake must be confirmed to be 8.5 or greater by an authoritative source such as the USGS, and must occur within the specified timeframe.

Aftershocks or foreshocks associated with the earthquake will not count towards the question, only the initial earthquake with a magnitude of 8.5 or greater.

If no such earthquake occurs within the specified timeframe, the question will resolve as NO.

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@mods @TimothyJohnson5c16 I think USGS can downgrade earthquake magnitudes for up to a few days afterwards but Kamchatka is pretty unambiguously Pacific Ring of Fire

@SaviorofPlant Yeah, we can wait a couple days. But so far it's been revised from 8.7 to 8.8, so it seems pretty certain.

@SaviorofPlant I agree. Unambiguously in the ring of fire. 8.8 seems enough greater than 8.5 to resolve.

Buyers beware: the market author is banned. This market can only resolve at the hands of mods, and it seems like a judgement call may need to be made on what counts as being in the Ring of Fire if such an earthquake is borderline in it or not.