Resolution criteria
President or Defence Minister say a new mobilization wave has started — Resolves YES if an official statement is posted on the presidential website or the Defence Ministry’s site, or carried as a direct on‑record quote by Russia’s state news agency. Primary sources: en.kremlin.ru, eng.mil.ru; corroboration acceptable via TASS. (publicnow.com)
An official order on a new mobilization wave is published — Resolves YES if a presidential decree or government act initiating mobilization is posted on Russia’s Official Internet Portal of Legal Information (pravo.gov.ru) during 2025. Example portal entries for reference: presidential and government acts. (publication.pravo.gov.ru)
Some people are mobilized before any official claims, reported by media — Resolves YES if at least two reputable outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, Meduza/Novaya Gazeta Europe/Mediazona) publish reports with primary evidence (documents, official notices, or on‑record confirmation) of call‑ups under “mobilization” occurring before any national‑level announcement. (dw.com)
Exit or travel restrictions for mobilization‑eligible citizens are enacted — Resolves YES if a new 2025 federal legal act adding or re‑imposing outbound travel limits tied to mobilization is officially published (pravo.gov.ru or government.ru). Media coverage (RBC/BBC) may be used for quick verification but the legal text controls. (publication.pravo.gov.ru)
An official target number for new call‑ups is publicly announced — Resolves YES if the President, Defence Minister, or MoD officially state a nationwide numeric target for a new mobilization tranche (kremlin.ru or mil.ru; TASS acceptable as transcript). (publicnow.com)
No new mobilization wave occurs by Dec 31, 2025 — Resolves YES if by 23:59 Moscow time on December 31, 2025, no new national‑level mobilization announcement or legal act is posted on kremlin.ru/mil.ru/pravo.gov.ru. Media reports alone do not negate this answer. (publicnow.com)
Regional authorities announce local mobilization measures before national statements — Resolves YES if an official regional government channel (website/verified press service) issues a mobilization order or directive and timestamps show it precedes any national‑level announcement; verify via the regional post plus at least one reputable outlet. National sites used for time comparison: kremlin.ru, mil.ru. (publicnow.com)
Notes:
Timeframe: now through 23:59 Moscow time, December 31, 2025. I will try to resolve options immediately as evidence appears.
Routine spring/autumn conscription does not count; events must pertain to mobilization of reservists or equivalent emergency call‑ups.
Where conflict exists, the legally published text on pravo.gov.ru governs. (publication.pravo.gov.ru)
Background
Russia’s 2022 “partial mobilization” was enacted by presidential decree and officially published; debate has persisted over whether it was ever formally terminated, making clear, dated sources crucial for any “new wave.” (en.wikipedia.org)
Official publications and announcements are typically posted on: the President’s site (en.kremlin.ru), the Defence Ministry (eng.mil.ru), and the Official Internet Portal of Legal Information (pravo.gov.ru); Rossiyskaya Gazeta also serves as an official print record. (publicnow.com)
Travel/exit limits tied to draft status were expanded via 2023 legislation introducing electronic summons and automatic restrictions upon service of a notice; “new” 2025 restrictions would require fresh acts. (rbc.ru)
Considerations
“New wave” here means a distinct, newly announced/ordered mobilization beyond routine conscription; this can be nationwide or explicitly framed as mobilization in legal/official texts. (publication.pravo.gov.ru)
Independent media in or about Russia often operate in exile; require primary evidence or multiple outlets to verify pre‑announcement mobilization claims. (apnews.com)
For sequencing (regional before national), use official post timestamps and archived copies if needed; national baselines for comparison are kremlin.ru and mil.ru. (publicnow.com)
Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is monitoring mobilization of people from "резерв" (reserve) forces, who can be mobilized by presidential decree to protect important objects (as of Nov 4, 2025). The creator notes:
There are currently no reports of these forces being sent to Ukraine
The creator is uncertain whether this constitutes a "new wave" for resolution purposes
The creator is considering creating a new option: "Mobilized forces sent to Ukraine"
This mobilization is in addition to the 2022 mobilization that was never formally cancelled
Recent developments that may be preludes to mobilization:
Digital list of draft notices implemented (with travel restrictions)
Increased fines for ignoring draft notices
There are news about mobilizing people from military reserves.
There are two types of reserves:
"запас", in which people get by completing mandatory (for men) military service or by graduating from any of programs from the list and if they have no heath issues. The list of programs includes all medical programs, some IT bachelor's degrees, signalmen, etc. People from that reserve were mobilized in 2022. Without a declared mobilization they could only be sent for training.
"резерв", in which people get by already being in "запас" and by signing a contract that they will regularly visit military trainings. After Nov 4, 2025 they can be and are mobilized by a president decree to protect important objects (is addition to the 2022 mobilization that wasn't cancelled). There are no news about them being send to Ukraine, so I am not sure if I should resolve it as a new wave and create a new option that "Mobilized forces sent to Ukraine". They could be mobilized prior that without any mobilization in case a wartime was declared, but the Russian government doesn't want to declare it.
Some other things were put into action:
A digital list of draft notices. If such notice is sent to a person, he will be restricted from leaving the country.
Fines for ignoring a draft notice were increased.
Seems like a prelude for a new wave for mobilization.
Hm, I didn't understand how liquidity works. I thought I can add some after creation, but it seems that added liquidity doesn't immediately impact already created options
