The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a leading indicator for the economy. In the second half of the month, 400 purchasing managers are survey if their numbers are higher, lower, or the same as in the previous month. If the resulting index is >50 means expansion.
One answer resolves NA depending on the presidential election outcome.
The other answer resolves YES if the November US ISM Manufacturing PMI is above 50.
The other answer resolves NO if the November US ISM Manufacturing PMI is 50 or lower.
A plot of the last 10 years of monthly data:
It's interesting how inaccurate the PMI was in terms of what was actually needed. In 2019 everyone was talking about the inverted yield curve and how there was definitely going to be a massive recession, then when COVID hit it spiked down but then immediately spiked back up due to massive amounts of government capital being injected into the economy, followed by inflation, leading to huge amounts of profit being left on the table. So really what we're betting on is a lemming-esque, responsive yet lagging indicator.
@PatrickDelaney I wonder if we will see reactions to the prediction in response to some Trump announcements.