Will the EU get a Defense Commissioner following the election?
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Oct 3
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Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, von der Leyen said it would be “reasonable” to create the post, should she secure a second term at the helm of the EU institution after June’s European elections. (source)

Resolves YES if the next commission after the election in June has a dedicated defense commissioner post. It may be a different literal title as long as it can be traced to the current proposal.

Resolves NO if no such role is established.

Close date might be extended.

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Current proposal includes:

Andrius Kubilius

Commissioner for Defence and Space

That would be a YES.

bought Ṁ500 YES

This was mentioned in the political guidelines VDL published, so I think it is likely to happen.