Today, weed is recreationally legal in 24 states (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington). What’s the next one to legalize it?
Only US states count here, not territories. Also multiple states can be resolve YES, if and only if, ballots / laws legalizing weed are passed on the same date in multiple states.
If marijuana becomes federally recreationally legal before any new state makes it legal, every state will resolve to YES.
multiple states can be resolve YES, if and only if, ballots / laws legalizing weed are passed on the same date in multiple states.
This sounds like you'll count the day of the vote, but shouldn't the relevant day be that of the law coming into force?
If marijuana becomes federally recreationally legal before any new state makes it legal, every state will resolve to YES.
Why? It could well be federally legal but state illegal.
Dates
Agreed that the most relevant date would be when the law comes into effect, but that will leave the market open for an extended period of time with a fairly obvious result (say it passes in Nov, and comes into effect in Jan, this market will just stay at 99.9% for two months). This was a quicker way to short-circuit what I assumed to be an obvious result.
Federal weed
Google really isn’t helping much with the concept of what “federally legal, but state illegal” would look like. The most obvious example was gay marriage which the supreme court had to make federally legal after a number of challenges.
This was just the easiest way of me resolving the federally legal weed potential (as unlikely as I see it), without having to interpret how each state would respond to this (which are likely going to run the gamut).
Do both of these seem fair?
@mattyb agreed on the dates. Ideally we'd have the same option as Metaculus, of the market closing for at one point but not resolving until later; in this case there might be judicial challenges to legalization, for example.
About federal weed, i think it is important to distinguish "federal" from "nationwide". I understand the comparison with same-sex marriage, but that is not a criminal law matter; a more apt comparison, I think, would be alcohol. Ninety years after Prohibition ended, there are still dry counties. We could end up with a situation where the federal government won't do anything to you for using pot, but some states still do. I don't think a decision comparable to Obergefell v. Hodges, where the Supreme Court said all states must marry same-sex couples, will happen for marijuana (and I think this is the right thing, the matter is a states' rights one, even if I think states should all legalize already).
(duplicate, ignore)
“Keaohokalole said he hopes the legislation could be approved at the upcoming session, which begins in January. Tarnas, however, said that might be difficult within a session that will be dominated by responding to the Maui wildfire disaster and budget challenges.”
Hawaii attorney general issues clear roadmap for legalizing recreational marijuana - Hawaii News Now
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why should I trade?
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.