Will a Third Party Candidate win a House seat by 2040?
Mini
3
Ṁ115
2041
18%
chance

The US has had a rich history of 3rd Party Candidates winning House of Representatives seats including 8 Reps from the Minnesota Farmer-Labor Party, and members from the Liberals, American Labor Party, and more. But since the 1950s, the only non-Democrats/Republicans have been Independents.

Will there be an elected member of the US House of Representatives with a party affiliation that is not with the Democratic or Republican parties by the end of 2040? Independents don’t count.

It doesn’t matter if they caucus with either major party, nor does it matter if they’ve taken office by the time of market closing. Any person winning a US House election from a 3rd party will Resolve YES.

If someone switches to a 3rd party while holding a seat, they must be reaffirmed by their constituents before this Resolves YES. This is about the vox populi and their choice.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money