MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will Musk-backed third-party candidate(s) win any seats in Congress by the end of 2026?
21
Ṁ2797
2026
18%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Resolves YES if a candidate who is neither a Democrat or a Republican, and is supported by Elon Musk, is elected to the US Senate or House of Representatives by the end of 2026. Resolves NO otherwise.

🇺🇸 US Politics️ PoliticsTrumpElon muskElon Musk
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Comments

Related questions

Musk party member elected to US congress in 2026?
4% chance
What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?
Will any GOP member of the US Congress lose their 2026 election to a candidate endorsed by Elon Musk?
56% chance
Will any third party gain more than 5 concurrent seats in Congress before the end of 2032
15% chance
Will Elon Musk fund any democratic party member in 2025?
11% chance
Will a Third Party Candidate win a House seat by 2040?
25% chance
Will a third party win a federal office in the US before the end of 2028?
9% chance
Will Elon Musk successfully defeat at least 5 Republicans in 2026?
20% chance
Will Elon Musk successfully primary any incumbent Democrats in the next election?
49% chance
Will a third-party or independent candidate win any state in the 2024 or 2028 US presidential elections?
4% chance

Related questions

Musk party member elected to US congress in 2026?
4% chance
Will a Third Party Candidate win a House seat by 2040?
25% chance
What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?
Will a third party win a federal office in the US before the end of 2028?
9% chance
Will any GOP member of the US Congress lose their 2026 election to a candidate endorsed by Elon Musk?
56% chance
Will Elon Musk successfully defeat at least 5 Republicans in 2026?
20% chance
Will any third party gain more than 5 concurrent seats in Congress before the end of 2032
15% chance
Will Elon Musk successfully primary any incumbent Democrats in the next election?
49% chance
Will Elon Musk fund any democratic party member in 2025?
11% chance
Will a third-party or independent candidate win any state in the 2024 or 2028 US presidential elections?
4% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout