upgraded!

@mattyb please clarify this a bot for me. Here’s my understanding:

Occupation = IDF presence (similar to Israel security zone in lebanon in the past).

Annexation = Law passed in Israeli parliament to officially annex a region (similar to Golan Heights).

Do you agree with this?

What about a grey-zone scenarios, when there are settlement (officially recognized or not) where there is no official annexation (similar to the west bank)?

@Lemming i agree with your two definitions, though i think annexation’s is too restrictive. if israel begin to move civilian into a portion of lebanon who start building civilian infrastructure, that would be an example of annexation without recognition, and I’d Resolve this YES

@mattyb there exists a very clear definition of annexation. The Golan and the parts of Jerusalem occupied by Jordan between 1949 and 1967 are unambiguously annexed, the remainder of the territory Israel controls is unambiguously not. Settlements in formerly Jordanian-occupied Judea and Samaria are under Israeli military administration, as the territory is occupied but not annexed; Israel doesn't claim sovereignty over these areas (but it does over Golan and Jerusalem).

For purposes of this market, is the disputed territory of Shebaa Farms/Har Dov considered part of Lebanon?

@UnspecifiedPerson good question, this would be for any newly annexed land. so Shebaa Farms wouldn’t count here. I’ll update the description to be clearer about this.

This area is very charged, so I want to be extra clear. If Israel invades, occupies and are with its military, establishes military fortifications but no Israelis move there and inhabitants don't get recognized as Israeli citizens, does that count as annexed or not?

@Enlil very good question. there’s a quite faint line between occupation and annexation. as this will likely involve a judgement call on my part, i won’t trade here. i’ll add that to the description.

i don’t think there need to be full settlements built in Lebanon for this to Resolve YES. in your example, if Israel has set up seemingly permanent military facilities in (what is currently) Lebanon sovereign territory, with the intent of staying long term, that will likely be sufficient for a YES Resolve.

the other thing that i’ll consider if the language addressing the occupied land by the israeli government. if they refer to the land as Israel, or discuss plans for treating seized territories as native land (e.g. building settlements / relocating people) that would also likely mean that Israel views the land as being annexed, and would lead to a YES Resolution.

@mattyb Thanks for the clarification! One follow-up to get a better idea where you draw the line: would you consider one of West Bank or Gaza as annexed?

@Enlil West Bank: 100%. Gaza’s a war zone rn, but before I would’ve needed to seriously consider if it was just occupied or if it was fully annexed, post 2005

@mattyb Given the West Bank has the PA and Israel forcefully removed thousands of Jews from Gaza, I think making a call on whatever might happen in Lebanon is gonna likely be a tough judgment call.

@Enlil not if (and i’m really hoping for this) the conflict ends without further aggression from either end 🤞